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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."